The 'breaking news' came from BBC last evening: Nepal's political think tank has finally realized that the country has entered into a situation of energy crisis. It took few years and a series of exponentially increasing load shedding notifications, for the concerned authorities, to think that enough is enough! The recent decision of setting up expensive diesel-operated power plants early next year to help meet demand, taken after an announcement confirming 10-hours of daily load shedding in the country, is just another issue to show that our collective wisdom(?) prevails only in case of emergency.
The electricity production has reduced to about half its needs, thanks to unusually low reservoir level of the storage plants this year in addition to the low discharge level in the run-off the river type plants. The amount of power that Nepal imports from India is not enough to make up the huge gap in the demand and supply. The things are set to appear worse in coming years. The country is bound to suffer power cuts at least till 2013 because no new major power generation scheme, except the 70MW Middle Marsyangdi which has just been commissioned, is expected to be added in the national grid till then. However, nothing is new in all this. This is not something that has happened overnight. Everyone in the country was aware of the situation. But the things, probably, never appeared alarming until the fresh load shedding announcement. So, it seems that we waited till the situation reached to a threshold level and now we are justifying the decision to opt for comparatively expensive generation expansion plan. There can not be any denial over the fact that we need to act quickly. There is no point in complaining and debating over the past negligence. However, the past can make us wiser when it comes to making any future plans. Declaration of emergency situation has not come as any surprise to me as the decision has been taken to avoid the lengthy process of parliamentary approval for the plan.
Lets discuss about appropriateness of the decision of adding 200-MW diesel power plants to the national grid. Currently, Nepal is facing both energy (consumption) as well as capacity (peak demand) crisis. Industrial establishments are forced to reduce their productivity whereas, domestic and commercial consumers are sick of trying to adjust their daily life as per the load shedding schedule. In this case, government should look like acting hard to ease up the situation. And they got to act as fast as they could! Keeping this in view, probably, setting up few diesel plants might be handy as the installation process doesn't take long time like hydro plants. In addition, the initial investment is also not too high. However, the problem with diesel plants is its production cost. Who is going to bear the increased cost of electricity? If the utility/government is going to transfer this added cost to the industries, then the production cost of industries is bound to get high. In that case, can our industries survive or compete in an already stressed market where they face intense competition from Indian and Chinese counterparts? On the other hand, is the government capable of providing subsidy? I doubt!
Having expressed my doubts, I agree that the government has a basic duty towards its citizens to provide them with a quality life. Electricity is definitely one of the way the several ways to improve the life quality. However, sadly, more than half of the population have nothing to do with the government's innovations in the electricity sector. It would be wise for the government to show the same kind of urgency and concern towards those underprivileged people by providing them with alternate means of energy sources like solar. Also, the proposed diesel units should be operated in the most efficient way.
The diesel units may be expensive, but I support the decision in a way that at least government has recognized the intensity of the crisis. But, efforts should be on to construct the alternatives and the proposed diesel generating plants should only be considered as a stop-gap arrangement, not a permanent solution!
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10 Comments:
खै, अब कसरी बाँच्ने हो ?
लोडसेडिङ १० घन्टा हुनु भनेको कुनै जोक होइन, सारा संयन्त्र बिजुलीमा टिकेको छ । विद्यालय देखि अस्पताल सम्म बिजुलीको कारण प्रभावित भएको छ ।
लोडसेडिङ १० घन्टा भन्नु त, लोडसेडिङ शब्दकै बेइज्जत हो । हाम्रा ठुला ठालुले बेलैमा नसोचेकोले यस्तो विषम परिस्थितिको सिर्जना भएको हो ।
अनि अहिले यिनीहरुले गरेको प्लान ले पनि केही हुँदैन जस्तो लाग्छ । कारण अब यसोउसो भन्दै ४-५ महिना बिताइदिन्छन् । त्यसपछि वर्षा सुरु हुन्छ, अनि लोडसेडिङ मा सायद केही कमी आउला । त्यतीखेर यिनीहरुले ए ! यो त ठिकै छ भन्छन्, त्यत्ति मात्र हो ।
अझ १० घन्टा लोडसेडिङ गर्नैपर्ने थियो त, किन मध्यमर्स्याङ्दिको उद्घाटन गरेको होला अस्ति ! खै, के भन्ने, मलाई त सारो रिस उठेर आइरहेको छ ।
This is too much now! 70-hrs of weekly load shedding? something has to be done and probably there was no option left. but setting up diesel stations that require huge amount of fuel is disappointing. The government is not able to supply enough fuel for vehicles, how they are going to manage it for power plants? and can anyone even imagine the level of corruption in buying/transporting fuel and maintaining the units? Also, as you have pointed out, who is going to pay the additional charge? But you know what, Probably we are destined to enjoy (?) everyday 'candle light dinners'! come what may!
जती बिद्युत उत्पादन भए पनि लोड सेडिङ ले कहिले छोड्ने होइन !!
खै अबत आस पनि मरिसक्यो हो । दिनको १० घन्टा नै बिजुलि नहुने भएपछि कसरि चल्छ हो जिवनस्तर् ।
Deependra Ji,
It's astonishing how policy makers, over the course of time, failed to plot a simple graph between demand and supply. But as you said, let's not point finger at the past but look for the future.
The demand is not going to get down from here on, it's the fact. Efforts can be placed to use energy efficient appliances, but with advent of newer electronic gadgets, people have diversified their uses whole new sector. And there is always this population expulsion.
What I would like to see is a decentralized energy policy. "Small is beautiful". Sustainable energy plants (Hydro or other applicable source)in a small scale for a small area. Like a city (or VDC) having it own source, either privately or publicly funded.
This would usher a new era of job opportunities beginning from Project managers and Engineers to blue collar job. Creation of energy will bring about decentralized economic boom.
I know it's easier said than done. But how big of appetite do we still have? I think 10 hrs a day is already beyond the scope of wildest of nightmares.
deependraji, your blog has appeared very timely when we are at the thresold of moving to darker days. this is an example of completely failed energy policy and plan if it ever been there. As our prime minister just justified his decision by mentioning that ' we will face 18hour load shedding in coming summer if the additional thermal plant be not installed'. he is right in his statement but i wonder about his so-called '10GW by 10 years' plan.
Thank U for posting this. Since the time, I saw this news, I was little restless thinking if this decision of the present government is appropriate or not as it is going to affect me for always - not just me but each one of us in many ways. I am not expert on this so wanted to hear your opinion as you are in better position to understand.
How much 'people' know about the reasons 'people's government' was forced to declare a crisis and take decision is known to all; even more disturbing is that 'people' are not aware of the risks-benefits of this. Only thing we know is that we will have some more energy in our national energy grid.
I googled a bit and came to know that diesel power stations have been in operation for a long time but those were mostly private ones and small ones. There are many issues of running small ones - to maintain them also it will need a lot of care and expertise.
I have many questions which for some reason want to raise them here :
- 200MW : is this a big project?
- 200MW of electricity is a big decision. I am not sure what procedures are required for a government to approve such a big project - but have they been attempted or just by-passed by declaring an 'emergency'.
- PM in some speech today spoke of possible 18h of load-shedding in summer. How much truth is in that? Is it just one random figure or calculated possibility? If situation worsens then will there be a time when they can declare more than 24h of load-shedding a day?
- Why is there so much gap in demand and supply? The demand has always been high than production but whose fault is there in lagging in meeting the demand? Isn't that correctable? What has caused sudden doubling in the difference between production and supply?
- Diesel stations will need more resources than hydroelectric project - was there any attempt to divert these resources to propose a hydro-electric project? Why government decided in favor of diesel project rather than hydro? It is definitely not cost-benefit but is it the time factor? How much advantage we get in terms of time by deciding in favor of diesel than hydro? By when should we expect less hours of load-shedding? How many hours of less load-shedding should we expect? It will definitely not jump to 'zero'.
- Are there any groups debating in favor of hydro-projects?
- Globally there is shortage of fuel and only limited amount of diesel we get for our country. The prices of fuel (diesel) will without any doubt sky-rocket as diesel coming to Nepal will be diverted to making electricity rather than running trucks - raising the price of transportation and as a result price of everything. Has this been considered in estimating the risks/disadvantages of this project?
- how much environment will it damage? Government has not addressed the environmental issues seriously and 200MW of electricity should need lot of fuel-burning; so how much impact does it make on the environment?
- where will the diesel power plant be located and how will it affect the residents? There is always huge debates in location of water-supply and hydro-electricity projects as they affect local community a lot. Are diesel plants immune from these?
- Are there donors who are in favor of this project or will the government be making this from its own money? If there are no donors then why not? Are they opposing or not in favor of this decision?
People are quiet and happy about this project as they have been sold 'hope' of good days with less hours of load-shedding but how much cost will be added to them directly and how much indirectly by changes in economy?
I have more questions in mind running but ..
Good job friend. This is excellent idea to post this topic. But, there is other important news. Where are you now? How are you? I try to send some message to you but it failed. I hope you always good. God bless you.
your friend
Ardyono
I can feel the sense of anger, frustration and helplessness creeping in everyone's mind after the announcement of fresh load shedding schedule. There can be no denial to the fact that electricity is backbone of all the developmental activities and it's one of the fundamental necessities of humankind. I understand the hopelessness reflected in the comments by आकार and other friends.
Prajwol jee, It's good to hear from you after a long gap. Well, we had all the demand forecasts available in the past but policy makers simply ignored it. I agree with your thoughts that we should promote the use of energy efficient appliances along with some sort of 'decentralized' measures. we can emphasize on 'distributed generation' policy which includes both renewable as well as conventional forms of power generation close to the load centers.
Netra jee, you have, probably, appropriately pointed out that we are at the threshold of moving to the darker days. okay, it is already late, but there should be some sort of 'policy' and framework not only to combat the crisis but also to foresee a secured / sustained future. All we need is commitment! (please read this).
Nabin jee, you have raised some genuine questions and concerns in your comment. Traditionally, diesel power stations have been in operation for a long time but those were mostly private ones and small ones. There exists diesel plants of 200MW capacity. For example: GMR Vasavi's Basin Bridge 200 MW Diesel Power Plant (Chennai, India). However, I agree with you that there are issues related to maintenance and continuous fuel requirements.
We have talked a bit on this issue before and as promised, I am going to list out my responses to each of your points:
-Yes, 200MW project is a big one when it comes to diesel power plants.
-See, most of our policies are devised for hydropower plants. However, as there will be a huge investment in it, there must be some procedural decisions to be made; starting from environmental impact analysis and project awarding decision to bilateral agreements (probably with India) for assurance of continuous fuel supply etc.
-The PM's statement may be based upon mere possibilities, however, the figure of 18h load shedding has a symbolic meaning that we might have to face severer blackouts in future considering the demand-supply scenario. BTW, do you expect my response to 'load shedding of more than 24h a day'?
-Demand-supply gap has widened in recent years mainly due to two reasons: a) increased number of consumers, expansion in electricity distribution areas, increased income of the people (mostly through remittance) which has resulted in increased volume of electrical appliances at our homes, the decade long Maoist insurgency which resulted in migration of rural people to urban areas etc. etc. b) failure on the part of policy makers to foresee the intensity of the possible problem, not prioritizing electricity in the development agenda/plan, failure to control the huge volume of non-technical losses (theft of electricity etc.), failure to promote energy saving measures before the crisis took an abnormal shape etc. etc.
Out of the two, the first one you may consider as an obvious fallout whereas; the second one is related to managerial and low and order problems.
-The diesel plants can be installed in lesser time, the capital requirement is lower (however, operating cost is very high), the units can be dismantled to transfer to some other convenient location when required and they can take up load almost immediately hence suitable for peak load conditions. It's difficult to tell what could have prompted the government to take decision in favor of diesel power plants. But, I guess that it has more to do with time factor than the cost-benefit analysis. Regarding installation period, one can get it installed in few months time. However, calculation of load shedding hours depends upon various factors: discharge (inflow) in the rivers, prevailing temperatures (as most of our rivers are snow-fed rivers), changing user behavior, political scenario in the country (strikes, chakka jam etc changes the load curves) etc.
-There can NOT be any alternative to hydropower plant in Nepal. what we are talking is only a stop-gap arrangement.
-Though not critical at present, fuel supply may be an important factor to be considered seriously. And transportation cost is actually high, specially if you consider the risk associated with it (due to the existing conflicts and insurgency situations in several parts of the country). I do not have any clear idea regarding any such cost calculations made by the authorities.
-Diesel power plans definitely have impact on environment (global warming) and it depends upon the period of operation. Besides there is noise pollution (someone living nearby Hetauda diesel plant might have experienced it). Having said this, I feel that there should not be such a big environmental threat (in a global sense) caused by this 200MW diesel plant. India, China, and rest of the world are holding too much of share (in terms of environmental impact).I don't think we need to be worried in this regard. See, even for hydropower plants which is considered as clean energy sources, there are issues raised regarding environmental impacts (specially by the anti-dam lobby).
-The diesel power plants can be installed at or near the load centers particularly, to improve the voltage profile as well as to reduce transmission loss. In Nepal, Birgunj and Biratnagar are the two major load centers.
-Right now, I am not sure about the interested /requested donors and mode of financing. Lets wait and watch out for the developments.
-You are probably right that people are quiet and happy about this project in anticipation of good days ahead with less hours of load-shedding. However, the cost of electricity will never be the same. There are some gray areas and questions that need to be answered when it comes to cost-benefit estimations and net monetary profit which I have mentioned briefly in my post as well.
I have tried my best to answer your queries. I appreciate your enthusiasm and concerns. I feel your anxiety and understand your frustration. Believe me, my feelings are not different than yours! Thanks once again for the comment.
Thank U for the replies. That makes things much clearer to a lay man like me.
Yet, it is amusing how silent the whole issue is - which could be because of selfishness on the side of people also who are fed up of power cuts. There is still a clear guideline to save power in this crisis hidden from us.
This is a big blow to the experts, policy makers, and responsible authority. Hope alternative solutions will come up as government is planing this one.
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